Mumbai: After a prolonged dry spell in the city since July 16, heavy rains are likely to make a comeback between August 7 and August 10, as per forecasts. A monsoon low-pressure area is currently forming over the Bay of Bengal and the offshore monsoon trough in the vicinity of the Konkan will become stronger, as a result, bringing wet conditions to the region.
“Mumbai-MMR will get light to moderate rain on Sunday and Monday, which could intensify into moderate to heavy rain on Tuesday and Wednesday,” said Akshay Deoras, an independent meteorologist and researcher at the University of Reading, UK, who tracks the southwest monsoon’s progress over India.
“The dry spell in Mumbai since July 16 can be explained by the lack of any favourable low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal, which help to draw moisture over the west coast,” he added.
However, Mumbai is likely to experience relatively less severe weather than neighbouring coastal districts.
Accordingly, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has sounded a yellow category weather alert for Mumbai between August 7 and 10, while Thane, Raigad and Palghar have been placed under an orange category weather alert, with warnings for extremely heavy rainfall in isolated locations. A cyclonic circulation just off the Konkan coast had brought heavy showers to interior regions in the Raigad district on Friday.
Though Mumbai received 45% excess rain in July, the first six days of August in the city have seen a rainfall deficit, with the IMD’s weather station at Santacruz having received 92.8mm of rain, which is 36% less than the normal of 145mm between August 1 and August 6. The IMD’s weather station in Colaba has so far seen a 57% rainfall deficit this month.
Seasonally speaking, Mumbai has received 1629.2mm of rain since June 1, including pre-monsoon and monsoon showers. This is 91.4mm more than the seasonal normal up to August 6. Colaba, meanwhile, has received 1351.6mm of rain since June 1, which is
51mm less than the station’s normal amount up to August 6.