Mumbai Is the growing and visible unease between the Bhartiya Janata Party and the Shinde faction the outcome of the usual rough edges of any new partnerships that get smoothened over time, or signs of fissures that will only deepen as the days go by?
This is the million- dollar question that hangs over current Maharashtra politics.
Certainly, indications coming from the BJP suggest that though the chief minister may be Eknath Shinde, it’s they, who are playing on the front foot. A day after the party’s state unit president, Chandrashekhar Bawankule claimed that the state’s next chief minister would be Devendra Fadnavis, the BJP announced that it would be fielding a candidate for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections from Buldhana. At present, the seat is held by Pratap Jadhav, one of the 12 Shiv Sena MPs who defected to the Shinde camp, and that union labour minister and BJP’s national general secretary Bhupendra Yadav will be touring the constituency shortly, Buldhana is one of the 16 constituencies that the BJP has identified in the state which needs to be won as part of its aim to win 45 seats in Lok Sabha in 2024.
Those in the Shinde camp have been taken aback by Bawankule’s bold assertions without taking their alliance partner into consideration, and there are murmurs whether the BJP’s expansionist plans will leave any room for the Shinde faction leaders. They had after all left the Shiv Sena in the first place with an eye on retaining their seats in the 2024 polls.
“Twelve sitting MPs have changed their loyalties in the belief that their political prospects will be protected in the next Lok Sabha elections. Within months now the BJP has started making announcements directly without taking us into the confidence. There are a few other Lok Sabha seats that could lead to further discord between the two ruling partners,” said a minister from Shinde camp requesting anonymity. Bawankule’s statement about Fadnavis being the next chief minister of Maharashtra have thrown uncertainty over the fate of chief minister Shinde himself after 2024, he added.
The Fadnavis-Shinde bromance will also be tested in the coming days over the nominations to the legislative council by the Governor. Of the 12 seats up for grabs, the BJP is offering only two to the Shinde camp, leading to much heartburn. Likewise, seat-sharing in the upcoming municipal polls is becoming a contentious issue. The Shinde camp, which claims to represent the real Shiv Sena, is expecting equal, if not the greater share, in seat allocation. But the BJP has, through its Mumbai chief Ashish Shelar, made it amply clear that they will keep the lion’s share. Shelar has already claimed that Mumbai’s next mayor will come from the BJP. This has angered the Shinde faction though its leader has chosen not to react at this point.
“The BJP is aiming to sweep the 227-member house in the BMC which means fewer seats for us,” said an MLA from the Shinde camp requesting he not be named. “But this could marginalise us. Barring Thane, BJP may give us the secondary treatment in other corporations in Mumbai Metropolitan Regions. In Kalyan-Dombivali, the fight has already begun over the sharing of wards,” he said.
Insiders from both sides believe that the fight over power-sharing is expected to be fierce in the future as Shinde is under tremendous pressure from the MLAs supporting him. They want to be either in the cabinet or get some other substantial positions as reward for their rebellion. Several rebel MLAs have already warned him of ‘extreme steps’ if they are not accommodated in the power-sharing.
A senior BJP minister succinctly explained the dilemma that chief minister Eknath Shinde finds himself in: “The Shinde faction needs the BJP more that we do them. The Supreme Court has still not given its verdict over the legality of the split in the Shiv Sena. On the other hand, Uddhav Thackeray has become aggressive in his bid to rebuild his party and the Congress-NCP are hostile to the rebel camp. As such, Shinde and Co. have no option but to make peace with the BJP. We too will accommodate them to some extent since we will also not like the traditional Sena voter going back to the Thackerays.”
But it will be an accommodation, and nothing more.
