Strap for web: Shinde faction said that they may field a candidate for the bypoll, after the team Uddhav moved the Delhi high court on Monday over the EC’s urgency in deciding the matter over the frozen party name and symbol, as Shinde faction wasn’t even contesting the seat
Mumbai: The Andheri (East) bypoll slated for November 3 is the first test at the hustings after the Shiv Sena split into two factions led by Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde. It’s also a prestige battle for Thackeray and his Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) allies on one side, and Shinde and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on the other.
The by-election will reveal whether the MVA allies can transfer their votes to each other. The Congress came out in support of the Sena in the bye-election, and agreed not to field any candidate in a seat that was represented by Congress’ Suresh Shetty for three terms till 2014. The outcome will also determine if the Congress can formally join forces with Uddhav’s party, newly-named the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), for the upcoming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections.
The challenge before both teams lies in facing an electorate with fresh names and symbols after the Election Commission of India (ECI) froze the party name and the ‘bow-and-arrow’ symbol on October 8. On Monday, the ECI allotted new names to both factions (the Shinde faction will henceforth be called, Balasaheb’s Shiv Sena), as well as the flaming torch symbol to team Uddhav.
Meanwhile, state education minister Deepak Kesarkar of the Shinde faction said that they may field a candidate for the bypoll, after the team Uddhav moved the Delhi high court earlier in the day on Monday over the EC’s urgency in deciding the matter over the frozen party name and symbol, as Shinde faction wasn’t even contesting the seat.
“We have not conceded the seat to the BJP though we have decided to fight the election as an alliance. Our option of contesting it is still open and the final call over it will be taken by top leaders from both the sides,” Kesarkar said on Monday.
The bypoll was necessitated after incumbent MLA Ramesh Latke of the erstwhile Thackeray-led Sena passed away in May. Team Uddhav has fielded Latke’s wife, Rutuja. Murji Patel has been unofficially declared as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate. On Monday, state Congress chief Nana Patole, Mumbai Congress president Bhai Jagtap and former minister Amit Deshmukh met Thackeray to reiterate their support for the Sena.
“This election will determine if the Congress can transfer its votes to our candidate. If this transfer of votes takes place as expected, we may ally with the Congress for the BMC polls. We are otherwise wary of this alliance as we feel a tie-up will be futile in terms of electoral gains for the Shiv Sena,” a senior Sena leader from team Uddhav said.
Being a cadre-based party, the Sena factions can easily transfer votes to another party or candidate during an election. For Congress, however, which has a mass base yet no strong cadre base to speak of, the same cannot be said.
In 2019, Latke had secured 62,773 votes, while Patel, a former corporator, got 45,808 votes. Amin Kutty of the Congress had garnered 27,951 votes. The constituency was represented by former health minister Suresh Shetty of the Congress. In 2014, when Sena and the BJP fought separately, Latke won 52,817 votes, while the BJP’s Sunil Yadav polled 47,338 votes. Shetty polled 37,929 votes.
The seat, which has a strong number of lower middle class and middle-class electors, has around 103,000 Marathi voters, followed by 48,000 each of North Indians and Muslims, 33,000 Gujaratis, Marwadis and Jains, 16,000 Christians and 15,000 South Indians. Team Uddhav hopes to hold on to its core Marathi voters, getting some auxiliary votes of sections like Gujaratis and other mercantile communities and North Indians. The party also expects the truck with the Congress and the perception that it is the main opposition to the BJP to get a strong chunk of Muslim and Christian votes.
Maharashtra BJP vice president Parag Alvani said, “Murji Patel had lost the seat with a narrow margin despite contesting as an independent in 2019. In the previous 2014 election, when we fought against each other, BJP’s Sunil Yadav lost by just 5,500 votes against Shiv Sena’s Ramesh Latke. We are confident about our victory. Shinde camp has adequate support, it needs to be seen whether it translates into the votes. Patel has his own vote bank and support among Dalits and Muslims as well and it was evident in the last election.”
The BJP is banking on the traditional Sena votes which may shift to them due to Shinde’s support. “The constituency has sizable north Indian and Gujarati speaking votes which are our committed votes, besides which we are banking on Marathi speaking votes which we expect to come to us because of the split. The constituency has Sena dominance, but in the changed political equations we expect the voter swing,” said a senior BJP leader requesting anonymity.
“It will also give us the idea about the public sentiments towards Shinde camp after his revolt and also towards the BJP,” he said.
“We have supported the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in previous assembly by-elections at Pandharpur-Mangalwedha, Deglur and Kolhapur (North),” the Sena leader quoted above said. The challenge lay in taking the new name and symbol to the masses. “But, since this is a by-election, we can also deploy workers from other parts of the city and take the symbol to every household,” he added.
Of the six municipal wards in the constituency, three are held by the Sena, two by the BJP and one by the Congress. It also has parts of municipal seats from Jogeshwari and Vile Parle.