Beijing: More than 1 billion people in China may eventually contract Covid-19 in the months ahead as the Omicron-driven outbreak spreads, a senior health adviser to the Chinese government has said as Beijing continues to dismantle its ‘zero-Covid’ policy, rapidly doing away with mass tests and removing restrictions on domestic travel.
About 80 % to 90% of China’s population, currently just over 1.4 billion, may eventually be infected with the virus, Feng Zijian, a former deputy chief at China’s Centre for Disease Control and Prevention and a current adviser to the government on pandemic prevention, said.
“It’s going to be inevitable for most of us to get infected once, regardless of how the Covid-fighting measures are adjusted,” Feng was quoted as saying by the social media handle of the government-run China Youth Daily at an online meeting held by the Tsinghua University in Beijing on Tuesday.
“According to mathematical models, when the first wave of large-scale outbreaks reach their peaks, the infection rate in our population may reach about 60%, and then gradually fall back to a plateau, and eventually 80%-90% of us may experience infection,” Feng said in a translated version of his talk at the online seminar.
Feng said the government needs to implement three critical measures to tackle the rising number of cases: Taking appropriate measures to suppress the peak of epidemic infections; the healthcare system should be prepared to deal with the stress on infrastructure in advance and further accelerate vaccination, especially among older people with chronic conditions.
Feng also advised the government to allow mild and asymptomatic Covid-19 patients to isolate at home when cases surge to relieve pressure on the health infrastructure.
Several experts have warned about a massive surge in cases in China as the country opens up in less than two weeks after rare widespread protests against Covid-19 curbs were reported from many cities.
The country could face “millions of daily new cases for a few months, which would be orders of magnitude more than the highest number the country has witnessed thus far,” the Fortune magazine quoted a Goldman Sachs research note as saying on Sunday, before the new changes in Covid-control rules were announced.
Brokerage Nomura said given that the Covid-19 infection rate in China is around 0.13%, it is not enough to build “herd immunity”. “Despite the substantial resources devoted to the heavy-handed zero Covid strategy over the past two years, China does not appear to be well prepared for a massive wave of Covid infections,” a Nomura report said on Thursday.
“Until today the Covid infection rate in China was only around 0.13%, which is far from the level needed for herd immunity,” the report added.
What can China do to prepare for the surge in cases?
“I think the first priority is to establish the overall strategy, whether it is ‘zero-Covid’ or living with the virus. If there’s truly a transition away from ‘zero-Covid’, lessons from elsewhere include the importance of high vaccination coverage in the elderly (booster doses), relaxed policies on self-isolation and self-quarantine, and preparing healthcare facilities and long term care facilities for a major surge in infections,” Ben Cowling, Professor of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, the University of Hong Kong said.
That will not be an easy task.
“China’s hospitals provide an average of 6.7 beds per 1,000 people as of 2021, up from 6.46 a year earlier, according to the statistics of the country’s healthcare development statement published in July 2022. In 2020, that figure stood at 12.65 for South Korea, 12.63 for Japan, and 7.82 for Germany,” state broadcaster’s English channel, CGTN reported on Thursday.
“In terms of ICU beds, China can only provide 4.5 beds for every 100,000 people, whereas the global average is 10, according to the World Health Organisation,” the report said.
More easing of curbs
China continued to relax tough Covid-19 curbs on Thursday with the Shanghai government from Friday allowing certain categories of positive or symptomatic Covid-19 cases to quarantine at home.
Both symptomatic carriers and mild cases will be allowed to quarantine at home, the state-run tabloid, Global Times reported on Thursday.
Shanghai residents will also not be required to show negative Covid-19 test reports to enter “indoor entertainment venues and restaurants” from Friday.
China reported 21,439 new local Covid-19 infections for December 7, down from the previous day and nearly 20,000 below the peak of 40,052 cases logged on November 27, the national health commission said on Thursday. One reason behind the drop in the daily Covid-19 caseload could be that fewer people are now testing given the easing of Covid curbs.
