The Bharatiya Janata Party’s victory in the third Rajya Sabha seat — its win in two was expected given its numbers and the fact that there were no other candidates from other parties contesting them — is precisely the sort of boost that the aggressive opposition party in Maharashtra needed.
Of the six seats up for elections on Friday, the ruling Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition won three. It had put up a candidate for the fourth seat — Sena legislator Sanjay Pawar — but the BJP also nominated a candidate, Dhananjay Mahadik, which turned the polling for this seat into a heated contest.
Even Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar was magnanimous enough to credit Devendra Fadnavis, the leader of opposition in the state and former chief minister, for his ability to garner the support of independent legislators.
“The MVA made a courageous attempt to win the sixth seat despite falling short of a few numbers, but one has to accept the miracle, in which BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis succeeded in weaning away independents and smaller parties who would have supported the MVA,” Sharad Pawar said.
Importantly, he added, that the loss of this seat will not have an impact on the stability of the Uddhav Thackeray-led MVA government.
However, Shiv Sena leader and chief spokesperson Sanjay Raut said that their candidate Sanjay Pawar lost to Mahadik as six independents and small-party MLAs did not vote in favour of the MVA. “Some people went back on their word. We did not get the three votes from Hitendra Thakur’s Bahujan Vikas Aghadi, Sanjay Shinde (Karmala), Shyam Sunder Shinde (Loha) and Devendra Bhuyar (Morshi).”
There are a few important implications of this result.
First off, the two camps will see their next face-off barely nine days from now. The legislative council elections, set to take place on June 20, happens over a secret ballot. Given their recent Rajya Sabha seat setback, cross-voting by legislators is a concern for MVA. The BJP has fielded six candidates, including one BJP-backed independent, for 10 seats — once again, two seats will see a contest.
Political experts said that the BJP’s win will only give a boost to the challenge it poses to the MVA coalition parties. The BJP will build on its success, and contest the upcoming civic bodies and district councils elections in a buoyant mood. As independents and smaller parties join its ranks, the party will hope to push the government’s back up to the wall.
For the MVA, this Rajya Sabha seat defeat is a wake-up call. With independents and small parties switching sides, there could be a sense of instability which could make some disgruntled legislators of the ruling coalition uneasy.
Secondly, the battle is also one between chief minister Uddhav Thackeray and Fadnavis. The defeat of Sena’s candidate raises questions about the strategy of managing votes.
Since the NCP, Shiv Sena and Congress came together to form the government in 2019 — with the Sena breaking away from its long-time saffron ally — the BJP, pushed into opposition, has been aggressively raising allegations against several ministers of the MVA government, including on issues of corruption and money laundering. Central agencies like the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and the Enforcement Directorate (ED) have probed many political leaders of the ruling parties, as well as their associates. Two ministers in the state are currently in jail on serious charges of corruption — Anil Deshmukh, the former home minister, and Nawab Malik, the current minorities development minister.
Saturday’s reverses would mean that MVA leaders will have to go back to the drawing board at the very least to ascertain what went wrong and strategise for the upcoming slew of local body and legislative council elections.
Despite the result, the MVA is presenting a united front. Both Pawar and Raut said that they took a risk by fielding a candidate — which didn’t pay off.
“I am not shocked at the result. If you see the votes, there was no change in the quota given to the NCP, Shiv Sena and Congress candidates. There was a huge gap in the sixth seat which the Shiv Sena contested. The number of votes was less, however, we took a risk and tried. The number of independents was more with the BJP than us. The BJP was successful in getting some independents who were with us,” the NCP chief said.
“The victory has shown those who think that they represent Maharashtra and Mumbai, this is not the case. We will have a series of victories now after our win today,” a jubilant Fadnavis said. “We are preparing the strategy for the council polls,” he added.
“The BJP was given the mandate by the people. But the mandate was taken away by back-stabbing us. The internal difference between the government’s constituents is visible after our victory today,” Fadnavis said referring to the 2019 Assembly results in which the BJP secured the largest majority, but failed to form the government after Sena withdrew from its pre-poll alliance.
Political analyst Hemant Desai said that smaller parties and Indpendent’s votes to the BJP would not be a threat to the MVA government but it could have some impact in the upcoming legislative council polls and hit the morale of the ruling coalition. “The MVA has kept its votes intact, but some smaller party MLAs and independents did not vote. There is not immediate threat to MVA. With legislative council election just a few days away, the ruling coalition must be feeling the pressure as the vote is through secret ballot,” he said.
Referring to Pawar’s statement that Fadnavis was successful in bringing MLAs in his fold, Desai said, “The statement praising Fadnavis is an indirect taunt to Uddhav Thackeray over the planning and management.”
