Mumbai With Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) Dhananjay (Munna) Mahadik trumping Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Pawar in the recently concluded Rajya Sabha poll, the vulnerabilities and factionalism in the ruling Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance has been exposed.
The defeat, which insiders admit has exposed the internal factionalism, poor floor management and peoples’ skills of MVA leaders, will put the front on a weak wicket before the elections to the state legislative council on June 20 and presidential polls on July 18. Put together, these polls will have an impact on the front’s morale in the local body elections due later this year, including that to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), where the Shiv Sena has much at stake.
Insiders say that the Shiv Sena, and by extension the MVA, committed a set of tactical errors. Unlike his predecessors who kept independent MLAs in good humour for their obvious nuisance value, chief minister Uddhav Thackeray is blamed for being difficult to access for legislators and even ministers, and is said to lack a strong grip over the government apparatus.
This led some MLAs, including independents, gravitating towards deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar, who is seen as more hands-on and as the alpha male of the regime. Congress leaders point to how some of the independents, who are claimed to have voted for the BJP, are close to the NCP.
Mahadik is a former Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) man and was elected to the Lok Sabha as a party nominee in 2014. Mahadik’s victory will put two leaders—minister of state for home Satej (Bunty) Patil (Congress) and rural development minister Hasan Mushrif (NCP) on a sticky wicket in Kolhapur.
The Shiv Sena, which was once famous for its monolithic structure and iron-clad adherence to the writ of the high-command, is gradually finding itself in the grip of a simmering factional war among its leaders and ministers. To add to this, there is a perception that the Sena is in power but not in authority as the NCP controls the government through powerful portfolios like finance, home, water resources and rural development. Some Sena and Congress legislators are said to be upset at Ajit Pawar, who holds charge of finance, over partial treatment in favour of his partymen.
The choice of Sanjay Pawar, who belongs to the Maratha community, and from a region where the NCP has a strong base (western Maharashtra) may have also upset a section of the NCP, which may have been wary at the rise of a rival power centre.
“This victory was not with the mandate of the people but it was the mandate of horse-trading,” charged Raut, while questioning if the Election Commission of India (ECI) was acting under the union government’s directives. The ECI invalidated the vote of Sena MLA Suhas Kande, but struck down objections to votes cast by BJP MLA Sudhir Mungantiwar and independent Ravi Rana.
Raut blamed six legislators, including three from Hitendra Thakur’s Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (BVA) and Sanjaymama Shinde (Independent-Karmala), Shyamsunder Shinde (Peasants and Workers Party- Loha) and Devendra Bhuyar (Independent-Morshi) for cross-voting. Bhuyar and Sanjay Shinde have rubbished the allegation. However, Raut denied any threat to the MVA government as it had secured over 160 votes. Incidentally, these six MLAs are said to be close to the NCP.
“It may not be an exaggeration to say that this may be the beginning of the MVA’s weakening,” said a senior Congress leader, claiming that there was a section in the NCP which still retained a soft-corner for the BJP. A Congress minister too hinted that some from the NCP may have had played a role in the Shiv Sena’s defeat. “A setback in the council elections may cause some instability,” he admitted.
“One of the weak points of the government is poor floor management,” said an independent legislator, adding that the Shiv Sena had been left in the lurch by the Congress and NCP.
“There were several undercurrents in the MVA that we exploited. There is massive resentment which found expression in this election,” said another independent legislator who is close to the BJP. He added that after tasting blood in the Rajya Sabha polls, the BJP would contest and seek to win six of ten seats in the elections to the state legislative council.
The BJP has put up six candidates for ten seats, with the Congress, Shiv Sena fielding two each and NCP three. There are chances that an NCP candidate may withdraw, leaving 12 candidates in the fray.
Incidentally, despite being in power, the Shiv Sena has faced steady attrition and setbacks. Unlike the NCP, it has been unable to launch its own social engineering exercise to expand its base. The electoral and social catchments of the Shiv Sena and the NCP also overlap in areas like Marathwada and parts of western Maharashtra, which has ensured that despite the two sharing power in the state, relations between the cadre continue to be hostile.
Leader of opposition Devendra Fadnavis attributed the MVA’s defeat to the ‘hubris of power’ and charged, “This is a government full of contradictions. Hence, everyone is blaming each other. The government must introspect. There is massive unrest among the legislators. When the government fails to work, legislators have to face a backlash,” said Fadnavis, adding that the MLAs had ‘voted as per their conscience.’
Hemant Desai, senior journalist and analyst, said that the MVA lacked a coherent strategy. “Their overconfidence worked against them. On the other hand, Fadnavis worked silently and under the radar,” he noted. Desai added that Thackeray’s lack of administrative experience, accessibility, team spirit and networking were weak points.