North Korea on Friday said at least one person had died of Covid-19 and hundreds of thousands had shown symptoms, including fever, as concerns grow over a potentially ‘explosive’ outbreak in a population over 26 million with under-resourced healthcare systems, limited testing capabilities and no known vaccination programme. Confirmation of its first case also comes after the North Korean regime – admittedly already largely isolated from the world – insisted there was no sign of the virus even as the others battles multiple waves of a deadly virus that has killed over 6.2 million people so far.
This morning North Korea media said six had died of a fever ‘whose cause couldn’t be identified’ and that at least one of the six had tested positive for Covid -19, specifically the BA. 2 omicron sub-variant.
The brewing health (Covid) crisis in North Korea spells potential trouble for the rest of the world, which can ill afford yet another wave of infections. North Korea leader Kim Jong Un’s comment about a ‘gravest state emergency’ and ordering of a national lockdown reveals the possible size of this outbreak.
How bad is the Covid situation in North Korea?
State-run Korean Central News Agency says around 187,000 people are currently in isolation and are being treated for ‘a fever of unidentified origin’ that has ‘explosively spread nationwide’ since late April.
In addition, around 350,000 others have shown signs of contracting that fever, KCNA said.
State media also said around 162,000 have been treated so far – although it is unclear if this means they have recovered and been removed from quarantine.
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On Thursday another 18,000 people reported symptoms.
There have been no reports on how many of these people have tested positive for Covid-19.
What are the testing and vaccination options?
Limited and none, respectively.
The World Health Organization believes North Korea is one of two countries – the other is Eritrea in Africa – to not have an active Covid vaccination programme.
In fact, it is unclear if North Korea has vaccines at all.
COVAX – the global vaccine-sharing programme – did offer doses but the allocation failed to ship because the country did not arrange shipment, reportedly over international monitoring requirements.
It is not known if Kim Jong Un will revisit the offer of vaccines at this time.
Vaccines from China were also offered – and refused.
The United States, at this time, has ruled out sending vaccines.
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As far as Covid testing capabilities are concerned, North Korea said last year it had home-grown PCR kits in addition to a few delivered by Russia.
Is Kim Jong Un vaccinated?
Also unknown; in July last year South Korea’s spy agency said ‘no’.
How fast is the ‘fever’ spreading?
At this time, experts say the pace of testing suggests North Korea cannot handle the number of symptomatic cases it has reported. WHO data indicates that less than 65,000 – around 0.25 per cent of the population – were tested for Covid by the end of March.
“… been testing around 1,400 people each week. Assuming they were at peak capacity, they can perform 400 tests per day max – not nearly enough to test 350,000 people with symptoms,” Harvard Medical School’s Kee Park, who has worked on health care projects in North Korea, told Reuters.
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On potential deaths, Park said: “Using conservative CFR of 1 per cent, and assuming the surge is due to an Omicron variant, North Korea can expect 3,500 deaths from this outbreak.”
How good (or bad) is North Korea’s healthcare system?
North Korea ranks last in the world for its ability to rapidly respond to and mitigate the spread of an epidemic, according to the latest Global Health Security Index in December.
It has a high number of trained doctors and the ability to rapidly deploy and organise staff… but the healthcare system is chronically under-resourced.
South Korea believes the North lacks even the most basic medical supplies – such as painkillers and disinfectants – and suffers from poor sanitation and irregular power and water supply to hospitals.
In fact, a North Korean diplomat who defected in 2016 told Reuters Kim Jong Un had ‘ordered mobilisation of reserve medical supplies…. which means hospitals have run out of medicines…’
What are the Covid safety protocols in North Korea?
Unclear.
There appears to be no clear rule on face masks, for example. Citizens have been seen wearing masks, but also going mask-free at major political events that mobilised tens of thousands of people.
Kim Jong Un was seen in a mask for the first time on Thursday during an emergency meeting.
What does all this mean for the world?
That the outbreak could pose a political challenge for North Korea and a health challenge to the rest of the world, apart from being a potentially dire humanitarian catastrophe.
North Korea shares land borders with South Korea and China, both of whom are battling Covid waves of their own. An increasingly grim situation in that country could lead to a greater influx of people looking to defect to either of the other two, and potentially lead to the virus spreading further.
With input from AFP, Reuters