The last two-and-a-half years have been stormy for the Uddhav Thackeray-led Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government, with the threat of Covid-19, corruption charges by the opposition, coupled with a hostile union government, keeping the coalition – Shiv Sena, the Nationalist Congress Party, and Congress – leaders on their toes. However, apart from a few setbacks, the government seems to have weathered these challenges.
Now with the MVA entering into the second half of its tenure, the immediate task would be to win the local body elections due in a few months. Besides, it needs to speed up the execution of ongoing infrastructure projects, plan new ones, and most importantly, resolve the quota issues for the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and the Maratha community.
Even before the pandemic broke out, the state’s financial condition was in bad shape. The interim budget presented in February 2019 estimated a revenue deficit of ₹19,784 crore for the 2019-20 financial year. The Covid-19 situation took a toll on the state’s revenue and brought the economic cycle to a grinding halt. The cautious approach of the state government to reopen activities on the lines of the Centre’s unlock policy failed to lessen the impact on the finances.
As per the state budget presented in March 2020, the revenue expenditure estimated for the coming financial year was ₹3.93 lakh crore, causing a revenue deficit of ₹24,352 crore. The state revenue generation in the financial year 2021-22 stood at ₹3.17 lakh crore – a shortfall of around ₹45,000 crore – against the estimated revenue of ₹3.62 lakh crore. This led to a reduction in expenditure outlay by almost 15%.
Finance department officials said the reduction in expenditure would impact spending on development works and bills of the establishment costs in the coming days. The state is also staring at an additional burden of ₹20,000 crore on the exchequer in 2022-23 as the Centre would stop compensating for the Goods and Services Tax (GST) losses from July 2022.
Unlike the erstwhile Bharatiya Janata Party-led regime, the MVA government does not have any showpiece infrastructure project to boast about. “The government has been reeling under financial stress. There was a drop in revenue while expenditure went up. The Centre has not cleared the GST compensation dues, which come to around ₹26,000 crore. The chief minister [Uddhav Thackeray] does not believe in making announcements for the sake of building perception,” a Sena minister, who did not want to be named, said.
“We have successfully tackled the pandemic and have been steering the government well despite efforts by BJP to destabilise the government. The government will take up public welfare schemes and push projects [in the next half of the tenure],” he added.
Maharashtra aims to create a 337.10-km Metro lines at a cost of ₹1,40,814 crore. However, this network will become operational in phases by 2030. At present, Mumbai has only one 11.4-km Metro corridor and two partially-operational lines.
When Devendra Fadnavis was the chief minister, construction of six Metro lines in the city began. Since then, the MVA government has not given approval for any new corridor in Mumbai. The tussle between the Centre and the MVA has led to major hurdles in infrastructure projects.
In October 2020, chief minister Thackeray moved the controversial car depot for the Colaba-Bandra-Seepz underground Metro line from Aarey Colony to Kanjurmarg. However, litigations on the plot have delayed the north-south corridor. Besides, the issue of the car depot has become political, with BJP and the MVA engaging in a war of words, causing a delay, which is estimated to lead to a cost escalation of around ₹10,000 crore.
On the political front, the Thackeray government has been unable to set a narrative in the first half of its term. The agenda was set by BJP and the BJP-led union government, and the MVA was only in reaction mode, political observers said, adding that it needed to change its approach in the second half.
“The government has been on the backfoot over various issues. BJP has successfully created a narrative that the government has been failing on several counts, including social and financial. Two ministers are jailed, and other ministers are on the radar of Central agencies, which do not send a good message to the people. How long can they blame the Centre? They [MVA] need to change the narrative and show development,” Surendra Jondhale, former professor of political science at Mumbai University, said.
The local body elections due later this year will be a litmus test for the ruling coalition, in which 80% of the state’s population is slated to vote. Polls to 18 municipal corporations, 21 zilla parishad (district councils), and 340 municipal councils are expected to be held in a few months. BJP is likely to use all its might to win the key local bodies to show that the MVA does not have the support of the people.
So far, the three alliance partners have not decided if they will contest the polls together. Congress, meanwhile, has made it clear that it will go solo. Sena and the NCP are expected to join hands for some municipal bodies.
The state government will also have to resolve the reservation issues of two politically strong communities. While the quota for the Marathas in jobs and education failed to stand the test of judicial scrutiny, the state has been unable to uphold the political reservation to the OBCs in the local body elections. BJP has already blamed the MVA for quotas to both the communities being struck down by the Supreme Court.
