Mumbai: The Maharashtra government held high-level a meeting on Monday to review what is now a sustained increase in Covid-19 cases in the state, deciding to observe the situation further before announcing any new restrictions or a revival of the mandatory masking rule since the spike does not seem to be leading to any significant increase in hospitalisations just yet.
The state reported 1,036 new cases on Monday, and had crossed the 1,000-cases mark in weekly average of new cases on Sunday.
The seven-day average of new cases was the highest since February 26, when the Omicron variant-induced wave tapered off, and the average test positivity rate, at 4.25%, was at its highest since February 13.
Officials said the surge was likely being driven by Omicron variant’s offshoots, the BA.4 and BA.5 sub-lineages. “Most of the infections [in the state] are from the BA.4 and BA.5 strains [of the Omicron variant], which are highly transmissible,” said health minister Rajesh Tope following a meeting of the state cabinet with chief minister Uddhav Thackeray.
The rate of hospitalisation in the state and in Mumbai continues to remain low, Tope said.
“Hospital admissions are very low. As per the data, only 1% of the positive cases are admitted to hospitals in the state. So, severity is low and therefore it is not a major cause of concern,” Tope said.
Of the 24,579 beds in Mumbai, only 0.74% (185) was occupied on Monday. Of the 4,768 oxygen beds, only 0.29% (14) was occupied.
Mumbai recorded 676 fresh cases on Monday (out of the state’s 1,036 new cases), contributing 60%-70% cases to the state’s daily tally since the last week of May, when the state-wide figures began picking up.
Tope offered a detailed analysis of on-ground situation to the state cabinet. In the last seven days, Mumbai contributed 67.28% of the total cases recorded in the state followed by Thane (17.17%), Pune (7.42%), Raigad (3.36%) and Palghar (2%), the presentation showed.
“These five districts have recorded a [daily] positivity rate of between 3% and 8%. Looking at the high positivity rate, the local administration has been asked to ramp up the testing,” Tope said.
Tope reiterated an earlier statement and said citizens were “encouraged” to mask up especially in public transportation and other sites of crowding. “Masks have to be worn by all, especially in the districts where positivity is high. However, masks are not made mandatory and not wearing them would not attract any fine. However, we appeal to the people to wear face masks and also administer the precaution dose, if they are eligible,” he said.
Last week, the state task force recommended that mandatory mask-wearing should be re-introduced — all restrictions, including mandatory mask wearing, were dropped on April 1. Additional chief secretary (public health) Pradeep Vyas wrote to district collectors twice last week, directing them to ramp up testing and encourage the wearing of masks in public places; Mumbai’s civic body chief Iqbal Chahal also issued a statement last week that the number of tests conducted daily (which have remained below 10,000) would be increased to 40,000.
There was no data available of what proportions of the new cases are of the BA.4 and BA.5.
The BA.4 and BA.5 variants appear to be triggering new waves in some regions, like South Africa, which were hit by the earliest lineages of the Omicron variant of the Sars-CoV-2. Scientists are for now attributing this to BA.4 and BA.5’s tendency to be more resistant to antibodies triggered by BA.1.
But antibodies triggered by BA.2, which swept across most parts of India, seem to be more durable, and the Omicron variant itself is known to lead to mild cases with a far less likelihood of serious illness than past versions of the virus.
Nonetheless, experts believe the situation should be observed.
Officially the state government is unwilling to call this a fourth wave as yet.
Dr Pradip Awate, epidemiologist and state surveillance officer said that there was no new variant of the virus causing the rise in numbers. “Unless and until there is an entirely new variant, we are unlikely to see a fourth wave. We may be seeing a surge in cases but they are all sub-lineages of the Omicron variant that caused the third wave. There will be a rise in cases but within weeks, it is expected to come down,” he said.
Dr Vasant Nagvekar, infectious disease expert and state Covid-19 task force member reiterated that it was too early to call it a fourth wave. “Most of the cases are mild. We need to wait and watch and follow Covid-19 appropriate behaviour of masking, following hand hygiene and social distancing.”
A number of prominent residents have reported turning Covid positive in the past week, including Bollywood stars like Shahrukh Khan, as well as politicians such as leader of Opposition Devendra Fadnavis, who took to Twitter on Sunday to announce his infection status.
State minister Aaditya Thackeray on Sunday had hinted that the state was taking serious note of the rise in numbers, when he said the state could be seeing the fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, and added that Covid-19-related deaths were not seeing an increase.
“We are asking everyone to wear masks when stepping outdoors. We have not made wearing masks mandatory but will make it soon. I also appeal to the public to receive the booster dose of the vaccine on time,” he told reporters.
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