With Fumio Kishida set to address the Shangri La dialogue tomorrow in Singapore, all eyes are on the Japanese Prime Minister on whether he takes on the Chinese challenge and delivers a message that unilateral change of status quo with force, be it against Taiwan, Senkaku Islands or Ukraine, is globally unacceptable.
While his predecessor Shinzo Abe has made it clear that the Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be military emergency for Japan, Kishida is expected to send a message to China that any armed aggression by the PLA against Taiwan or Senkaku Islands will be met with resolute military response. He will also showcase the Japanese commitment to open and free Indo-Pacific as a push back to the growing Chinese belligerence in the region beyond South and East China Sea.
Spotlight will also be on US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, whose address comes at a time when China is rapidly expanding its geo-political footprint from Far Pacific to Central Asia with Foreign Minister Wang Yi still in Kazakhstan as part of a three-day trip. The Chinese model of first commercial linkages and then diplomacy was in full display when Minister Wang visited eight nations in Oceania from May 26 to June 4.
The ASEAN countries will be hearing Secretary Austin’s lecture very carefully as not so long ago a US defence secretary under democrat Obama regime talked about the still-born East Asia pivot from the same podium. With US and Europe totally involved in the never-ending Ukraine war, the ASEAN countries will be hedging their bets on whether the US has any energy and the military capability to take on ever growing China in East and North Asia. While the US has been telling its interlocutors in Asia that it is committed to take up the China challenge, the ASEAN countries including Singapore like to sit on the fence than caught between the two friends turned archrivals.
Countering the Kishida and Austin narrative will be Chinese Minister of National Defense General Wei Fenghe, who is a key member of all powerful Central Military Commission led by eternal leader President Xi Jinping. While Gen Wei will criticize the US policy in the Indo-Pacific as anti-China and part of a ploy to create divisions and incite confrontations in the region. The Defence Minister will try to promote the Chinese vision of regional cooperation while standing firm on Taiwan and One China Policy while criticizing US for causing regional confrontation by militarily backing Taipei.
The Indian side will be represented at the dialogue by Eastern Naval Commander Vice Admiral Biswajit Dasgupta and Lt Gen (Retd) Narasimhan who heads the Chinese studies in MEA. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is not attending the dialogue even though he completes his visit to Vietnam today.
With China amassing debt IOUs and diplomatic leverage in turn from South Asia, Central Asia and now Oceania, the time to challenge Beijing by the democratic world is running out fast. Mere words from the podium mean sweet nothing.
